Gold-ology 2010!!! (aka Cinescapist is back!!!)

Hi Fellow Cinescapists!!!

Wow, how fast a whole year goes by. I know, I know, I left my 4 readers on edge after my clearly brilliant and oh-so-wrong commentary on WATCHMEN (it doesn't hold up, btw).

So, inspired by a new advisary, Motion Picture Literary (or MPL as they will further be referred to), I'm thought I'd bring back the good ol' Gold-ology! Hopefully you'll find some interesting discourse about the Oscar race this year.

My initial thoughts: I thought 2009 was a really great year for movies. While critically, there weren't as many "prestige films," I do believe that there was some of the best "entertainment films" that we've seen in the last decade. Movies that will live on long past 2009, truly embody what great movies should be, and will be forever remembered fondly. For me, the list includes (but is not limited to): STAR TREK, (500) DAYS OF SUMMER, AVATAR, UP IN THE AIR, and INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS. These are all movies that were all critically respected, but for me, also reminded me of how fun the great movies really can be. With each of the above listed movies, they all felt really personal to me and yet have been widely loved and well-received by large audiences as well. It's hard to find many years when that happens. I sincerely think that this year, regardless of what movies are rewarded at the Academy Awards come March, that there will be more than a few from 2009 that will live in the pop culture consciousness for many years to come.

And now, on to the main event. Unfortunately, I didn't get to post my nomination prediction post as I did last year (I DID, however, destroy my colleague MPL in predicting the noms, per usual). But basically, as far as nominations go, it was a fairly mild year with no real shocking surprises. Mostly this was due to the fact that the Academy is nominating 10 movies for Best Picture, instead of the usual 5. I've been back and forth on my feelings about having 10 nominees (5 makes it more elite, 10 opens up the discussion of more films and allows for a broad range of movies to be included), but ultimately I'm for it because I think the more movies we're talking about come Oscar time, the better. Plus, film is a subjective medium, so there's never going to be a true consensus of what films are "best" from any given year. My first impressions from the nominations this year is that all of the best films (IMO) are represented rightfully. I was a LITTLE surprised THE BLIND SIDE got a best pic nom, but didn't hate the movie (in fact I quite enjoyed it) enough to vilify its inclusion.

As for initial thoughts on potential winners, I think overall it will be a fairly predictable year. However, I'm going to have to disagree with my colleague MPL on some of his predictions. As has happened in past years, I think this is a year where hype and momentum are going to be very key. A good example is the Best Actress race. While most believe that this has come down to a two woman race (between Sandra Bullock and Meryl Streep), it seems like Sandra Bullock has all of the momentum in her favor. She's picked up a few key awards recently (SAG, Golden Globe), and I do believe that sometimes that Oscar voters sometimes just choose the star shining brightest at that time. There are exceptions to this (usually in the supporting category), and while I'm not making a final prediction on this race yet, I do think the odds are certainly in Bullock's favor.

The other race where this is prevalent, is for Best Picture. Now, the interesting thing to note is that the voting system for Best Picture this year is different than in years past, due to the 10 nominees. Instead of a voter just choosing one film as their selection, they must rank their selections. While it makes the voting process more complicated, it basically means that the order that voters rank their selections matter, and not just their top selection will be key in helping choose a winner. While most people have agreed that it's a two film race between AVATAR and HURT LOCKER, I'm not convinced there isn't room for a third. I believe that third film is INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS. The film has not been shut out of the major awards (winning SAG best ensemble was key), and it's fans are fervent (myself included). I think people are counting IB out too soon, and as we've seen in the past (notably with THE READER last year), never count out the Weinsteins. As for the top two contenders, I don't think THE HURT LOCKER, while great, is not "best picture" and I don't think I'm alone in that assessment (it totally deserves Best Director, btw), and AVATAR is hailed as being technically brilliant, but there are plenty of Oscar snobs who probably feel it ranks lower because of an unoriginal script. And, they might feel that TITANIC was reward enough for James Cameron. So, that's why I feel the race is a bit more wide open than people think. We'll know more as the weeks continue. As for now, I'm buying into the HURT LOCKER momentum.

Here are my winner picks for this week:
Best Picture- HURT LOCKER
Best Director- Kathryn Bigelow
Best Actor- Jeff Bridges
Best Actress- Sandra Bullock
Best Sup. Actor- Christoph Waltz
Best Sup. Actress- Mo'Nique
Best Screenplay (original)- INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS
Best Screenplay (adapted)- UP IN THE AIR
Best Animated Movie- UP
Best Foreign Film- WHITE RIBBON

As always, comments and questions are welcome and encouraged!