Gold-ology 1-21-09

Well, here it is, the eve before the Oscar nominations for the year of 2008.  This is always an exciting time because while it's easy to make predictions and be sure of what will most certainly get a nomination, one thing you can count on when the nominations are announced is that there will most definitely be a surprise or two.  This year, as opposed to years past, the typical indicators (guild awards, critics lists, etc) seem to make the predictions easy for which films will be rewarded.  However, as I've said before, the Academy doesn't really like to be told what to love, and the voting process is set up in a way that can lead to some surprising noms.  Sometimes the surprises are good, and reward films and people that are truly great and deserving, and other times the surprises can be more of a product of good timing and publicity.  I think this will be an interesting year, most likely more predictable than years past, but you can bet on the fact that something will come out of nowhere.

Here are my picks for each major category, along with an idea or two about changes/surprises:

Best Picture:

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Dark Knight

Frost/Nixon

Milk

Slumdog Millionaire

While so many indicators point to these movies being the final 5, lately I've been unsure about a couple.  I know that some people were questioning The Dark Knight's chances of getting a nom, but I think it had the right push at the right time and will help it get in there.  The movie I think could be switched out is Frost/Nixon.  I think it's certainly deserving, but I have yet to hear anyone put it as a #1, and also it seems like too many people are just predicting it for a nom by default, so I feel like that opens the door for a movie like Wall-E or The Wrestler to sneak in there.

Best Director

Danny Boyle- Slumdog Millionaire

David Fincher- Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Ron Howard- Frost/Nixon

Chris Nolan- The Dark Knight

Gus Van Sant- Milk

These nominees reflect the best pic noms, and I think these noms are a bit more secure (although it's not often that the pic and director noms match up).  Possible surprises: Darren Aronofsky (The Wrestler), Clint Eastwood (Changeling, Gran Torino).

Best Actor:

Clint Eastwood- Gran Torino

Frank Langella- Frost/Nixon

Sean Penn- Milk

Brad Pitt- Benjamin Button

Mickey Rourke- The Wrestler

Again, a solid category.  I think a very possible sub/snub is Richard Jenkins for The Visitor.  Odd man out may be Brad Pitt.

Best Actress:

Anne Hathaway- Rachel Getting Married

Sally Hawkins- Happy Go Lucky

Angelina Jolie- Changeling

Meryl Streep- Doubt

Kate Winslet- Revolutionary Road

Surprises: Kristen Scott Thomas for I've Loved You So Long instead of Angelina Jolie.  Bold way out there surprise: Kate Winslet gets her nom or another nom in THIS category for The Reader instead in the supporting category

Best Supporting Actor:

Josh Brolin- Milk

Robert Downey Jr- Tropic Thunder

Philip Seymour Hoffman- Doubt

Heath Ledger- The Dark Knight

Michael Shannon- Revolutionary Road

Aka "The 4 guys who will lose to Heath Ledger" category.  I think anyone else but Heath could be left out on this.  The most likely is Michael Shannon, though I really feel strongly he should be nominated.  The one who will take a spot if one of these guys don't come through is Dev Patel, but like Kate Winslet, the ambiguity of the size of his role could pose trouble for his chances.  Bold pick #2: James Franco gets a nom for Milk.

Best Supporting Actress:

Amy Adams- Doubt

Penelope Cruz- Vicky Christina Barcelona

Viola Davis- Doubt

Taraji Henson- Benjamin Button

Kate Winslet- The Reader

Marissa Tomei may sneak in here, and I was a little on the fence about putting her in instead of Amy Adams.  Also, if my above Kate Winslet surprise happens, it'll open the door for one more nominee.

Best Original Screenplay:

Woody Allen- Vicky Christina Barcelona

Dustin Lance Black- Milk

Tom McCarthy- The Visitor

Jim Reardon and Andrew Stanton- Wall-E

Robert Siegel- The Wrestler

Toughest category to predict, by far.  This one always has a few wild cards come into play.  I think one or more from a list of about 5 screenplays could come into play.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Simon Beaufoy- Slumdog Millionaire

Peter Morgan- Frost/Nixon

Jonathan and Chris Nolan- The Dark Knight

Eric Roth- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

John Patrick Shanley- Doubt

Again, this reflects the 5 best picture nominees, and I think these are pretty safe best.  There MIGHT be a surprise, but I think voters probably will reward these 5 very deserving nominees.

So there you have it, my picks for the nominees tomorrow.  I'll be back after the nominations are announced to discuss what will be contending for the Academy Award.  Hopefully we'll have some interesting nominees to discuss.

As always, comments are welcome and encouraged!