To begin, I'd like to just say a few words about the importance of the Oscars and what they mean overall for the industry, and the past and future history of films as well. I know every year there are a few cynics that complain that the Oscars overlook films, they're too political, they only recognize "artistic films" and not popular films, and have numerous other complaints. While of course no award is perfect and unanimous in its determination of who is the most deserving, the Oscars are certainly the best and most (deservedly) respected awards for the art of filmmaking. The Academy is a body of the most accomplished and well-respected members of the film community, and even though there will always be debate about who will win or lose, it's hard to diminish the honor that this body bestows on the best of film each and every year. The last thing I'll say on this subject, is while each year there is always politics and controversy involved, it's important to keep in mind that the films will speak for themselves. I urge everyone to see as much as they can to fully appreciate the nominees and the great films of the past year. This is the time of year to honor the actual art and craft of film, so all of the noise surrounding the Oscars is not always ridiculous. I'd love to think that all of the Academy members feel the same way, so at the end, they honor truly the best films of the year.
Anyway, on to Gold-ology!
In the past few days, 3 of the major guilds (and many of the technical ones, as well) have announced their nominations. This includes the Writers Guild, the Producers Guild and the Directors Guild. Here are the noms for each guild:
WGA
Original Screenplay
BURN AFTER READING- Coen Bros
MILK- Dustin Lance Black
VICKY CHRISTINA BARCELONA- Woody Allen
THE VISITOR- Tom McCarthy
THE WRESTLER- Robert Siegel
Adapted Screenplay
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON- Eric Roth
THE DARK KNIGHT- Christopher & Jonathan Nolan
DOUBT- John Patrick Shanley
FROST/NIXON- Peter Morgan
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE- Simon Beaufoy
PGA
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
THE DARK KNIGHT
FROST/NIXON
MILK
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
DGA
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON- David Fincher
THE DARK KNIGHT- Chris Nolan
FROST/NIXON- Ron Howard
MILK- Gus Van Sant
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE- Danny Boyle
Now, these are usually pretty important prognosticators for the Oscars, and as you can see, there's a pretty strong commonality among the nominees. I think what can be gathered from these noms is that the actual Oscar nominations probably won't be too dissimilar or unpredictable. I know there are a lot of people who think THE DARK KNIGHT will be the odd film out, but after all these noms from the guilds, it's hard to make a case against it getting an Oscar nom. I think what will make this year interesting is the time between the announcement of the nominations to the time when the winners are announced. While there may be a few favorites at the time of the nominations, I think what you'll see is a few films gain/lose momentum. No one expected THE DARK KNIGHT to really be a contender, but since it's gaining nominations for just about every single guild award, it'll be hard to ignore it come Oscar voting time. Momentum is always important, and sometimes its more about how to stay in front of voters' faces when it comes down to make a choice. A couple of years ago, when CRASH surprisingly wom, that film gained all it's momentum in the 2 months leading up to the Oscars and took the top prize. So, at least judging from these noms, it appears that while not much has changed for most of the films, it appears that THE DARK KNIGHT's chances just improved quite a bit.
As always, comments are welcome and encouraged!
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