Gold-ology 2010!!! (aka Cinescapist is back!!!)

Hi Fellow Cinescapists!!!

Wow, how fast a whole year goes by. I know, I know, I left my 4 readers on edge after my clearly brilliant and oh-so-wrong commentary on WATCHMEN (it doesn't hold up, btw).

So, inspired by a new advisary, Motion Picture Literary (or MPL as they will further be referred to), I'm thought I'd bring back the good ol' Gold-ology! Hopefully you'll find some interesting discourse about the Oscar race this year.

My initial thoughts: I thought 2009 was a really great year for movies. While critically, there weren't as many "prestige films," I do believe that there was some of the best "entertainment films" that we've seen in the last decade. Movies that will live on long past 2009, truly embody what great movies should be, and will be forever remembered fondly. For me, the list includes (but is not limited to): STAR TREK, (500) DAYS OF SUMMER, AVATAR, UP IN THE AIR, and INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS. These are all movies that were all critically respected, but for me, also reminded me of how fun the great movies really can be. With each of the above listed movies, they all felt really personal to me and yet have been widely loved and well-received by large audiences as well. It's hard to find many years when that happens. I sincerely think that this year, regardless of what movies are rewarded at the Academy Awards come March, that there will be more than a few from 2009 that will live in the pop culture consciousness for many years to come.

And now, on to the main event. Unfortunately, I didn't get to post my nomination prediction post as I did last year (I DID, however, destroy my colleague MPL in predicting the noms, per usual). But basically, as far as nominations go, it was a fairly mild year with no real shocking surprises. Mostly this was due to the fact that the Academy is nominating 10 movies for Best Picture, instead of the usual 5. I've been back and forth on my feelings about having 10 nominees (5 makes it more elite, 10 opens up the discussion of more films and allows for a broad range of movies to be included), but ultimately I'm for it because I think the more movies we're talking about come Oscar time, the better. Plus, film is a subjective medium, so there's never going to be a true consensus of what films are "best" from any given year. My first impressions from the nominations this year is that all of the best films (IMO) are represented rightfully. I was a LITTLE surprised THE BLIND SIDE got a best pic nom, but didn't hate the movie (in fact I quite enjoyed it) enough to vilify its inclusion.

As for initial thoughts on potential winners, I think overall it will be a fairly predictable year. However, I'm going to have to disagree with my colleague MPL on some of his predictions. As has happened in past years, I think this is a year where hype and momentum are going to be very key. A good example is the Best Actress race. While most believe that this has come down to a two woman race (between Sandra Bullock and Meryl Streep), it seems like Sandra Bullock has all of the momentum in her favor. She's picked up a few key awards recently (SAG, Golden Globe), and I do believe that sometimes that Oscar voters sometimes just choose the star shining brightest at that time. There are exceptions to this (usually in the supporting category), and while I'm not making a final prediction on this race yet, I do think the odds are certainly in Bullock's favor.

The other race where this is prevalent, is for Best Picture. Now, the interesting thing to note is that the voting system for Best Picture this year is different than in years past, due to the 10 nominees. Instead of a voter just choosing one film as their selection, they must rank their selections. While it makes the voting process more complicated, it basically means that the order that voters rank their selections matter, and not just their top selection will be key in helping choose a winner. While most people have agreed that it's a two film race between AVATAR and HURT LOCKER, I'm not convinced there isn't room for a third. I believe that third film is INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS. The film has not been shut out of the major awards (winning SAG best ensemble was key), and it's fans are fervent (myself included). I think people are counting IB out too soon, and as we've seen in the past (notably with THE READER last year), never count out the Weinsteins. As for the top two contenders, I don't think THE HURT LOCKER, while great, is not "best picture" and I don't think I'm alone in that assessment (it totally deserves Best Director, btw), and AVATAR is hailed as being technically brilliant, but there are plenty of Oscar snobs who probably feel it ranks lower because of an unoriginal script. And, they might feel that TITANIC was reward enough for James Cameron. So, that's why I feel the race is a bit more wide open than people think. We'll know more as the weeks continue. As for now, I'm buying into the HURT LOCKER momentum.

Here are my winner picks for this week:
Best Picture- HURT LOCKER
Best Director- Kathryn Bigelow
Best Actor- Jeff Bridges
Best Actress- Sandra Bullock
Best Sup. Actor- Christoph Waltz
Best Sup. Actress- Mo'Nique
Best Screenplay (original)- INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS
Best Screenplay (adapted)- UP IN THE AIR
Best Animated Movie- UP
Best Foreign Film- WHITE RIBBON

As always, comments and questions are welcome and encouraged!

Is Watchmen the new Fight Club?

Hey readers!

Sorry again for the absence.  I think I realized when it comes to this blog, it's certainly not going to be perfect.  However, I'm still intending to use it as a forum for anything that strikes my interest to write about.  The Oscar blogging kinda fell through (but then again, this year was a big "Who Cares?"  even after the awards), but I'll still be showing up periodically as I find interesting topics to write about.

Right now, WATCHMEN, one of the most anticipated and hyped movies of the year is playing in theaters across the country.  Since it's release last weekend, the reaction has been truly interesting.  Some love it, some hate it, but I feel that most people who have seen it (those familiar and unfamiliar with the graphic novel) seem to regard it with a strong sense of ambivalence.  I fall into this category as well.  I, for one, have read the graphic novel a couple of times, and do regard it as a groundbreaking and brilliant piece of literature.  Seeing the adaptation after a couple of years of excitement, I have to say my opinion was that it was in the "good" range.  I can't say I disliked it, but also can't say I loved it.  However, after much reflection on the film, I've come to the conclusion that this is a movie that will take a couple of viewings to make a truly fair judgement on the film.  The graphic novel is a dense deconstruction of comic book superheroes that takes a couple of readings to understand and appreciate its denseness and complexity.  The reason I think the film requires a few viewings, especially if you are a fan of the source material, is because I think at first viewing it's hard to fairly judge the film as an adaptation of the book, especially after so much buildup of hype and anticipation .  Its hard, on first viewing, not to ask: What did they leave in, what did they leave out, how does this particular scene look as a moving picture rather than a 2 dimensional drawing?  I think the interesting thing to try and understand about WATCHMEN (which many people are overlooking) is how it holds up as a FILM, rather than an adaptation.  I'm sure over time, there's a point where I'll have seen the movie more times than I've read the book, and I think that will be the time to really judge how successful the film is and how well it holds up.

Now, a few days ago a thought came to mind during a discussion with a friend, and brings me to the central question of this post: Is WATCHMEN the new FIGHT CLUB?  I thought about this for a while, and think there is definitely an argument to be made that it is.  First of all, both were highly hyped before their release as being high profile, highly anticipated projects (WATCHMEN having the graphic novel as its basis, with Zack Snyder directing a stylized superhero movie, FIGHT CLUB having the pedigree of Brad Pitt, Ed Norton and David Fincher directing a stylized action movie).  Upon their release, each were met with mixed reviews that criticized the mis-execution of their ambitious philisophical ideas and glorification of violence, among other criticisms.  Both underperformed and didn't meet box office expectations (WATCHMEN had a good first weekend, but not nearly as big as predicted by everyone, and I assure you it will drop heavily in subsequent weekends).  Both left audiences divided, ambivalent, and confused.  FIGHT CLUB, regarded as a failure after its theatrical release, found extraordinary new life on video.  This is where I discovered it, along with many others.  Even on first viewing, I found the movie "interesting," but on second viewing, I found it to be a completely different and incredible experience.  Over time, FIGHT CLUB became a cult classic, a movie people discovered, and after multiple viewings on video and DVD (FIGHT CLUB singlehandedly helped boom the still young DVD business) people were becoming passionate about the movie.  Now, FIGHT CLUB is regarded as a true 90s classic.  A movie that would most certainly never be made today (which always makes it a move to be appreciated as a classic), but a movie that both defines its time and transcends it.

It is yet to be seen weather or not WATCHMEN will follow the same path as FIGHT CLUB, but many indications show that it could become that type of movie with that kind of following.  While it probably won't be the massive theatrical success that many people predicted, I think this is a movie that will be appreciated over time.  First of all, on DVD more people will "discover" the film (As a first time viewer unfamiliar with the graphic novel, it's probably best to see it removed from all of the hype anyway).  It will also give fans of the novel the chance to appreciate the movie on its own, rather than scrutinizing the adaptation.  Like FIGHT CLUB, I believe WATCHMEN will expand it's devotees, whose love for the film will grow as time goes on.  Finally, I think WATCHMEN will thrive past its time when we get to see the expanded versions of the film.  Zack Snyder has already let people know that there is a longer extended cut, as well as the stand alone TALES OF THE BLACK FREIGHTER and UNDER THE MASK, both of which are integrated within the graphic novel, but left out for understandable theatrical time constraints.  When we get to see Snyder's fully fleshed out version of the movie, with the two stand alone features integrated, I would think that it would only expand fans appreciation for the film.

So will WATCHMEN, like FIGHT CLUB 10 years ago, go from hotly anticipated also-ran blockbuster to cult classic after its theatrical release?  Time will tell.  So far the similarities of the two films are striking (not in content, of course), and it will be interesting to see WATCHMEN's "second life" after its theatrical run.  Right now, it's just great that people are talking about the movie: discussing it, dissecting it, arguing about it in every respect.  That doesn't happen with many movies, and its great to see.  Much like a classic music album that's re-discovered and truly appreciated after years of its release, it's always an amazing phenomenon when a movie truly gains its deserved appreciation.  Weather WATCHMEN will be one of these phenomena has yet to be seen, but it sure would be fun if it did.

As always, comments are welcome and appreciated!

Gold-ology 2-22-09

I'll have more detailed commentary this week about the awards, in the meantime...

Predictions for the 2008 Academy Awards:

Picture- Slumdog Millionaire

Director- Danny Boyle

Actor- Sean Penn

(possible upset: Mickey Rourke)

Actress- Kate Winslet

(possible upset: Meryl Streep)

Sup. Actor- Heath Ledger

(possible upset: none)

Sup. Actress- Viola Davis

(possible upset: Penelope Cruz)

Original Screenplay- Milk

(possible upset: Wall-E)

Adapted Screenplay- Slumdog Millionaire

(possible upset: The Reader)

Animated Feature- Wall-E

(possible upset: None)

Animated Short- Presto

(possible upset: This Way Up)

Documentary- Man on Wire

Documentary  Short- The Witness

Foreign Film- Waltz With Bashir

(possible upset: The Class)

Music Score: Slumdog

(possible upset: Wall-E)

Music Song: The Wrestler (yes, I'm still bitter)

(probably upset: Jai-Ho)

Art Direction: Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Cinematography: Slumdog Millionaire

Costume Design: The Duchess

Editing: Slumdog Millionaire

Makeup: Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Live Action Short Film- Toyland

Sound Editing: Wall-E

Sound Mixing: Wall-E

Visual Effects: Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Running Time guess: 3 hrs. 10 Min.

Gold-ology 1-26-09

Sorry this post is a bit late, folks.  I'm actually glad I've had a few days to gather some thoughts about this years crop of Academy Award nominees.  You can find the complete list of nominees here.  First thoughts were both a mix of shock, apathy and disappointment.  Now, I'm not one of those that are completely shocked and outraged at the fact THE DARK KNIGHT didn't get a nomination for best picture.  Did I think it deserved one? Absolutely.  Did I think it was going to be a complete travesty if it didn't get a nomination? Not at all.  It's rare that the academy gets the Best Picture category right.  In fact, it's almost impossible.  Besides the obvious objectivity of choosing the "best" 5 movies of the year, what people are usually unaware of are the other factors that go into deciding the final five.  Factors like a film's release timing, the Oscar campaign a studio puts behind a film, the demographic makeup of the Academy voting body, and the voting process itself.  Much like the difficult process of getting a movie made, getting a best picture nomination also requires a similarly difficult "perfect storm" to come together to give a film a chance to compete.

As of today, I am ashamed to admit, I have not yet seen THE READER.  Honestly, that's how big of a surprise it was.  I actually had no intention of seeing the film, since I really didn't take it seriously as a contender at all.  I know many had the same feeling.  I think this is very telling, especially of the fact that it's curious that it would get a best picture nomination since it would require a great deal of academy voters to have a) seen the movie and b) loved the movie.  This is what disappoints me about the nominations.  I feel, if anything, the 5 best picture nominations should be loved by people in some regard.  Meaning, they don't have to be loved by ALL, but should at least be respected films that have their devoted lovers.  For example, I don't love SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE, however, I understand that a great many people do.  It's a movie I know that fills both of my criteria since a) many people in the industry have seen the movie and b) many of those people are fervent lovers of it.  When it comes to this year's best picture nominees, I could see that all fit this criteria excluding THE READER.  I just haven't spoken to many people who have seen or love the film.  The most depressing aspect of this is that its nomination could be just from sheer determination and luck from The Weinstein Co.  Maybe they were just THAT aggressive in getting to voters.  If that seems to be the case, it's unfortunate, because I think there are some really special films that deserved to have been considered over THE READER.

In regards to THE DARK KNIGHT not getting a nomination, I'm not sure really what to make of it.  I did think that the indicators (DGA, PGA, WGA noms) were really a sure sign of its nomination.  Its exclusion is certainly curious.  Again, while I think there are many films that are worthy of being in that 5th slot, I think the exclusion of THE DARK KNIGHT is more disappointing because I think the popularity of a film should never be a detractor.  While this has never stopped any film before (there are numerous times over the years when the biggest blockbuster of the year has WON the Oscar for Best Picture), I think its often important for the Academy to acknowledge these movies as ones that struck a chord with the general public, as well as the critics and award givers.  THE DARK KNIGHT transcended comic books movies, but was also masterfully crafted and well told.  While it's disappointing it won't be up for the big prize, my only hope is that it got its fair consideration from the voters.

As for the other nominations, not too many big surprises/snubs/disappointments.  I wasn't surprised at the Kate Winslet/Best Actress nomination.  I just didn't buy the fact that voters would consider that role a supporting one.  However, I do feel that her inclusion in that category, combined with her momentum going into Oscar month, will push her over the edge for a victory in that category.

It also appears to be even more of a lock that SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE will clean up at the awards.  I think a combination of the love of the movie from many people, as well as the momentum that will sweep up the rest of the voters, and it's hard to see that there could be any kind of upset.  I know there is the argument of BENJAMIN BUTTON making a push to upset since it has the most noms, but I think that is more of a case of a movie being admired (technically, especially) rather than loved.  All in all, should make for a very anti-climactic awards night.

On a personal note, I'm extremely disappointed that Bruce Springsteen was left out of the Best Song category.  I say this personally, since being a big Bruce Springsteen fan, and thinking that "The Wrester" was not only a perfect match of song to film, but also a truly amazing song on its own.  It's a real disappointment that we won't get to see him perform it at the Oscars, or see him collect another one (which would have happened had he been nominated).  Let the write-in campaign begin!

So, off we go for the next few weeks, deciphering who the winners will be, rewarding the best of 2008.  If the awards are as disappointing as the nominees, we'll be in for a long evening come February.

As always, comments are welcome and encouraged!

Gold-ology 1-21-09

Well, here it is, the eve before the Oscar nominations for the year of 2008.  This is always an exciting time because while it's easy to make predictions and be sure of what will most certainly get a nomination, one thing you can count on when the nominations are announced is that there will most definitely be a surprise or two.  This year, as opposed to years past, the typical indicators (guild awards, critics lists, etc) seem to make the predictions easy for which films will be rewarded.  However, as I've said before, the Academy doesn't really like to be told what to love, and the voting process is set up in a way that can lead to some surprising noms.  Sometimes the surprises are good, and reward films and people that are truly great and deserving, and other times the surprises can be more of a product of good timing and publicity.  I think this will be an interesting year, most likely more predictable than years past, but you can bet on the fact that something will come out of nowhere.

Here are my picks for each major category, along with an idea or two about changes/surprises:

Best Picture:

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Dark Knight

Frost/Nixon

Milk

Slumdog Millionaire

While so many indicators point to these movies being the final 5, lately I've been unsure about a couple.  I know that some people were questioning The Dark Knight's chances of getting a nom, but I think it had the right push at the right time and will help it get in there.  The movie I think could be switched out is Frost/Nixon.  I think it's certainly deserving, but I have yet to hear anyone put it as a #1, and also it seems like too many people are just predicting it for a nom by default, so I feel like that opens the door for a movie like Wall-E or The Wrestler to sneak in there.

Best Director

Danny Boyle- Slumdog Millionaire

David Fincher- Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Ron Howard- Frost/Nixon

Chris Nolan- The Dark Knight

Gus Van Sant- Milk

These nominees reflect the best pic noms, and I think these noms are a bit more secure (although it's not often that the pic and director noms match up).  Possible surprises: Darren Aronofsky (The Wrestler), Clint Eastwood (Changeling, Gran Torino).

Best Actor:

Clint Eastwood- Gran Torino

Frank Langella- Frost/Nixon

Sean Penn- Milk

Brad Pitt- Benjamin Button

Mickey Rourke- The Wrestler

Again, a solid category.  I think a very possible sub/snub is Richard Jenkins for The Visitor.  Odd man out may be Brad Pitt.

Best Actress:

Anne Hathaway- Rachel Getting Married

Sally Hawkins- Happy Go Lucky

Angelina Jolie- Changeling

Meryl Streep- Doubt

Kate Winslet- Revolutionary Road

Surprises: Kristen Scott Thomas for I've Loved You So Long instead of Angelina Jolie.  Bold way out there surprise: Kate Winslet gets her nom or another nom in THIS category for The Reader instead in the supporting category

Best Supporting Actor:

Josh Brolin- Milk

Robert Downey Jr- Tropic Thunder

Philip Seymour Hoffman- Doubt

Heath Ledger- The Dark Knight

Michael Shannon- Revolutionary Road

Aka "The 4 guys who will lose to Heath Ledger" category.  I think anyone else but Heath could be left out on this.  The most likely is Michael Shannon, though I really feel strongly he should be nominated.  The one who will take a spot if one of these guys don't come through is Dev Patel, but like Kate Winslet, the ambiguity of the size of his role could pose trouble for his chances.  Bold pick #2: James Franco gets a nom for Milk.

Best Supporting Actress:

Amy Adams- Doubt

Penelope Cruz- Vicky Christina Barcelona

Viola Davis- Doubt

Taraji Henson- Benjamin Button

Kate Winslet- The Reader

Marissa Tomei may sneak in here, and I was a little on the fence about putting her in instead of Amy Adams.  Also, if my above Kate Winslet surprise happens, it'll open the door for one more nominee.

Best Original Screenplay:

Woody Allen- Vicky Christina Barcelona

Dustin Lance Black- Milk

Tom McCarthy- The Visitor

Jim Reardon and Andrew Stanton- Wall-E

Robert Siegel- The Wrestler

Toughest category to predict, by far.  This one always has a few wild cards come into play.  I think one or more from a list of about 5 screenplays could come into play.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Simon Beaufoy- Slumdog Millionaire

Peter Morgan- Frost/Nixon

Jonathan and Chris Nolan- The Dark Knight

Eric Roth- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

John Patrick Shanley- Doubt

Again, this reflects the 5 best picture nominees, and I think these are pretty safe best.  There MIGHT be a surprise, but I think voters probably will reward these 5 very deserving nominees.

So there you have it, my picks for the nominees tomorrow.  I'll be back after the nominations are announced to discuss what will be contending for the Academy Award.  Hopefully we'll have some interesting nominees to discuss.

As always, comments are welcome and encouraged!

Gold-ology 1-18-09

One week after the Golden Globe winners were announced, and what can we really determine from that in relation to the upcoming Academy Award nominations?  Not really much.  There are a couple of really interesting things about the Golden Globe Awards to note that make it a frustratingly relevant awards show during the season.  First, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association is only a body consisting of about 35 international reporters.  So, while for some reason the media tends to give a lot of weight to the value of the awards, it's hard to put them above any other critics groups in the overall context of the awards season.  There are a couple of reasons why the Golden Globes receive more notoriety than many other awards ceremonies.  As a network aired ceremony, the Golden Globes receive a great deal of visibility to a national audience.  And the other main reason is that it's an ceremony that rewards both Television AND Film, so it's one of the few awards that combines both mediums and features and rewards stars from both TV and Movies at once.  If there were any other awards that featured both aspects, they would most likely receive the same amount of notoriety as well.

So realizing that the Golden Globes are really more a product of their press, rather than the virtue of their awarding body, does this mean that their influence on the Academy members is minimal?  Not really.  In fact, what it effectively does is give more visibility to the winners, which is crucially important AFTER the nominees are announced, rather than before.  At the time when the Golden Globes are aired, the nomination ballots are just about due (about a one day difference), so it shouldn't be a shock when a Golden Globe winner isn't nominated for an Oscar.  So while the nominees are decided, a winner at the Golden Globes can help bring visibility to a performance or a film that the Academy members may feel a greater urgency to consider when picking their winner.

As for this year's ceremony, I think the Golden Globes only further confirmed the frontrunner status for SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE (In this case, the fact that the other films lost only diminished their chances, rather than improving SLUMDOG's), I think the categories that were shaken up by the Golden Globes' results were the acting categories.  Notably, Best Actor and Actress.  Up until the Golden Globes, it seemed like Sean Penn was a lock for MILK, and anyone BUT Kate Winslet for her respective roles.  With the win for Mickey Rourke and Kate Winslet in TWO categories, things could get very interesting next month.  Again, while the fact that they won may not influence anything, the visibility of the awards and the wins will probably force Academy members to take note.

In a year that, so far, has been a bit anti-climactic (we'll see if that changes on Thursday), the Academy might want to shake things up when they award the winners in Feb.  If there is one thing that tends to be a recurring theme with the Academy Awards lately, it's that the Academy doesn't like to be told what to like and what to award.  Again, while the Golden Globes are far from an accurate prediction of who the winners will be come February, they can certainly provide or take away the slightest bit of momentum and visibility needed to get a win.

Gold-ology 1-8-09

Welcome to Gold-ology, readers!  For the next couple of months, i'm gonna devote some time here to discuss the most competitive and prestigious time of the movie calendar, Oscar season!  There's going to be quite a bit of activity in the next couple of months leading up to the big show, with nominations, other awards, and hopefully all of the great nominated movies coming soon to a theater near you.

To begin, I'd like to just say a few words about the importance of the Oscars and what they mean overall for the industry, and the past and future history of films as well.  I know every year there are a few cynics that complain that the Oscars overlook films, they're too political, they only recognize "artistic films" and not popular films, and have numerous other complaints.  While of course no award is perfect and unanimous in its determination of who is the most deserving, the Oscars are certainly the best and most (deservedly) respected awards for the art of filmmaking.  The Academy is a body of the most accomplished and well-respected members of the film community, and even though there will always be debate about who will win or lose, it's hard to diminish the honor that this body bestows on the best of film each and every year.  The last thing I'll say on this subject, is while each year there is always politics and controversy involved, it's important to keep in mind that the films will speak for themselves.  I urge everyone to see as much as they can to fully appreciate the nominees and the great films of the past year.  This is the time of year to honor the actual art and craft of film, so all of the noise surrounding the Oscars is not always ridiculous.  I'd love to think that all of the Academy members feel the same way, so at the end, they honor truly the best films of the year.

Anyway, on to Gold-ology!

In the past few days, 3 of the major guilds (and many of the technical ones, as well) have announced their nominations.  This includes the Writers Guild, the Producers Guild and the Directors Guild.  Here are the noms for each guild:

WGA

Original Screenplay

BURN AFTER READING- Coen Bros

MILK- Dustin Lance Black

VICKY CHRISTINA BARCELONA- Woody Allen

THE VISITOR- Tom McCarthy

THE WRESTLER- Robert Siegel

Adapted Screenplay

THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON- Eric Roth

THE DARK KNIGHT- Christopher & Jonathan Nolan

DOUBT- John Patrick Shanley

FROST/NIXON- Peter Morgan

SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE- Simon Beaufoy

PGA

THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON

THE DARK KNIGHT

FROST/NIXON

MILK

SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE

DGA

THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON- David Fincher

THE DARK KNIGHT- Chris Nolan

FROST/NIXON- Ron Howard

MILK- Gus Van Sant

SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE- Danny Boyle

Now, these are usually pretty important prognosticators for the Oscars, and as you can see, there's a pretty strong commonality among the nominees.  I think what can be gathered from these noms is that the actual Oscar nominations probably won't be too dissimilar or unpredictable.  I know there are a lot of people who think THE DARK KNIGHT will be the odd film out, but after all these noms from the guilds, it's hard to make a case against it getting an Oscar nom.  I think what will make this year interesting is the time between the announcement of the nominations to the time when the winners are announced.  While there may be a few favorites at the time of the nominations, I think what you'll see is a few films gain/lose momentum.  No one expected THE DARK KNIGHT to really be a contender, but since it's gaining nominations for just about every single guild award, it'll be hard to ignore it come Oscar voting time.  Momentum is always important, and sometimes its more about how to stay in front of voters' faces when it comes down to make a choice.  A couple of years ago, when CRASH surprisingly wom, that film gained all it's momentum in the 2 months leading up to the Oscars and took the top prize.  So, at least judging from these noms, it appears that while not much has changed for most of the films, it appears that THE DARK KNIGHT's chances just improved quite a bit.

As always, comments are welcome and encouraged!